Catholics May Decide the Election
In recent decades, Catholics, making up roughly one-quarter of the U.S. electorate, have become an important swing voter group. While they have traditionally voted with the Democratic party, evidence shows that a massive swing to support Republicans in the 1980's decided the 1980 and 1984 elections for Reagan, and the 1988 for Bush. In 2000, however, Catholics split nearly evenly between Bush and Gore. Even a small shift from this balance could decide the 2004 election, especially since the portion of voters that are Catholic is even higher in many important swing states, including Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Michigan, and Iowa. In particular, Catholics are approaching one-third of all voters in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Earlier in the 2004 campaign, Bush led Kerry slightly among Catholic voters in voter sampling polls. This most likely was based on the controversial issues of abortion and stem cell research, where Bush's positions more closely align with Catholic teaching. Adding to this, several bishops announced that they would deny Kerry communion based on his voting record on abortion. A lay canon lawyer even announced that he had received a "Vatican response" that Kerry was "automatically excommunicated" for his stance on abortion.
Ironically, these types of comments have angered many Catholics, and in addition many theologians have questioned their doctrinal basis. Indeed, the Vatican quickly replied officially that Kerry's excommunication was a bogus claim, and that Kerry is indeed a member of the Catholic Church. In addition, many bishops and cardinals have also said they would not deny communion to Kerry or any other "pro-choice" individual.
One prominent bishop, Raymond Burke of St. Louis (one who said he would deny communion to Kerry), even later clarified that it would not be sinful to vote for Kerry, if an individual had reasons to vote for him that overarched the issue of abortion. Essentially, the Church has said that, while it clearly does not support abortion, there are still circumstances where it is permissible to support a pro-choice candidate. It is only heresy if one actually receives or performs an abortion, and it is only a sin if one supports a canidate explicitly FOR their position on abortion.
Recently, groups of Catholics have been organizing to raise awareness that the pro-life Catholic teaching is larger than the issue of abortion, and, in fact, on many pro-life issues, the Democratic Party is closer to Catholic teaching than the Republican party. Last week, an op-ed article in the New York Times by prominent Catholic, Mark Roche (dean at University of Notre Dame), gave this argument widespread attention. In addition, “Catholics for Kerry” groups recently held coordinated rallies, attracting thousands of supporters, in ten cities around the country. Several of these cities are in the important swing states of Missouri, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.
These efforts appear to be taking effect. The most recent poll, conducted by Reuters/Zogby, shows that Kerry now holds a slight lead over Bush among Catholics. Daily tracking is needed to fully track this trend, but judging from the candidates’ overt focus on this voter block, the growing media attention to the Catholic factor, and the fervent grassroots activities of Catholic groups, it is clear many are noticing that the Catholic vote may decide the 2004 election. And things are looking up for the Catholic candidate.
Related references:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5868534/
http://www.scienceblog.com/community/older/archives/K/5/pub5385.html
http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1141/is_n15_v33/ai_19136139